TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has announced that the beginning of the 2025 dry season is delayed compared to its previous prediction in February. The latest update indicates a further shift in the early dry season, particularly across Java, Bali, and Nusa Tenggara.
"In Java, the beginning of the season has shifted by 3-5 ten-day periods, while in Bali and Nusa Tenggara, it has shifted by 2-4 ten-day periods, causing the dry season to arrive later than normal," the agency stated in its weekly weather forecast released on June 5, 2025.
Despite this delay, BMKG still predicts that the peak of the dry season will occur from July to August. "The duration of the dry season is expected to be shorter in most areas, although a small part of the area will experience a longer duration than normal," it added.
BMKG also revealed that heavy to very heavy rainfall has continued in several areas over the past week. Very heavy rain was recorded on June 2, 2025, in Ambon City, Maluku (138.1 mm/day); on June 3 in Tanimbar Islands Regency, Maluku (123.5 mm/day), and Sintang Regency, West Kalimantan (106.4 mm/day); and on June 4 in Central Maluku Regency (123.6 mm/day).
Rain in the North and East, Dry Season Expansion in the South
Relatively moist atmospheric conditions are expected to persist from June 6-12, especially in the northern and eastern parts of Indonesia. This is influenced by tropical dynamics, equatorial wave activity such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Kelvin waves, Equatorial Rossby waves, and the emergence of tropical cyclone embryo 92W.
Tropical Cyclone Embryo 92W, located in the Western Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines, is indirectly affecting the weather in North Maluku and Southwest West Papua. Additionally, cyclonic circulation in the western Indian Ocean off the coast of Sumatra is forming a convergence zone that triggers the growth of rain clouds in the surrounding area.
Conversely, local-scale atmospheric instability, stemming from land/sea breeze interactions and other geographical factors, is strengthening convective processes in the southern regions of Indonesia. "These factors can cause localized rainfall with moderate to heavy intensity in the afternoon, accompanied by uneven lightning within a short period," BMKG explained.
In the coming week, the Australian Monsoon Index is expected to strengthen. Dry air flow from the south will begin to enter the southern part of Indonesia, triggering a decrease in rainfall in that area. This indicates the expansion of areas entering the dry season, particularly from the second week of June 2025.
Early Warning for Heavy Rain in the Next Week
For June 6 to 8, 2025, BMKG issued an early warning for potential heavy rain in several areas, including Aceh, West Java, Central Sulawesi, and Maluku. Some regions, namely Riau Islands, Maluku, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara (NTB), and East Nusa Tenggara (NTT), have also been warned of potential strong winds.
Entering June 9 to 12, 2025, early warnings for potential heavy rain extend to Central Sulawesi, Southeast Sulawesi, and Papua Highlands. Caution for strong winds applies to the regions of West Java, Bali, NTB, NTT, South Sulawesi, and Maluku.
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