April 19, 2026 | 10:14 am
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - THE ceasefire struck last week between the United States, Israel and Iran has proved fragile. Rather than offering investors a calming pause, it has instead left global markets lurching, underscoring how little confidence traders place in the durability of the truce.
Volatility returned after Israel resumed strikes on Lebanon. Viewing the move as a breach of the agreement, Iran tightened—and could yet shut—shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Before markets had time to stabilize, the risk of a prolonged squeeze on global energy supplies reemerged, reintroducing a familiar but potent geopolitical risk premium.
Energy markets reacted immediately. Forties Blend, a benchmark for prompt crude cargoes, surged to as much as US$147 a barrel last Thursday, April 9, 2026, surpassing levels seen on the eve of the 2008 financial crisis. The spike reflected traders scrambling to secure replacement cargoes for large volumes effectively trapped in the Gulf, where logistics disruptions have become as significant as outright supply losses.
Futures markets tell a similar story of unease. Brent crude for June delivery has remained elevated at around US$97 a barrel, suggesting traders are unconvinced that supply tightness will ease any time soon. In effect, the forward curve is pricing not just disruption, but duration.
Global financial markets have inevitably been caught in the crosscurrents. Equities have retreated across major markets. In Jakarta, however, the Jakarta Composite Index has bucked the trend, rising sharply to above 7,308 last Thursday from levels around 6,900 previously.
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