April 14, 2026 | 04:09 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The beginning of a predicted long dry season in West Java has arrived. Based on observations from the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) during the first ten days of April 2026, one zone signaled the season's commencement.
"In the northern parts of Bekasi Regency and City, and northern Karawang, the dry season began during the second period of March," said Vivi Indhira Purnaningtyas, a weather forecaster at the West Java BMKG Climatology Station, during an online interview on Tuesday, April 14, 2026.
According to the BMKG definition, the dry season occurs when rainfall over a ten-day period, or dasarian, totals less than 50 millimeters. If these conditions persist for two more periods, totaling 30 days with less than 150 millimeters of rain, it is officially classified as the dry season.
Vivi stated that BMKG predicts the dry season in West Java to last between 100 and 300 days. A dry period of 10-12 dasarian covers 22 percent of the region, 13-15 dasarian (42 percent), 16-18 dasarian (12 percent), 19-21 dasarian (15 percent), and 22-24 dasarian (5 percent).
"The dry season for 28-30 dasarian covers two percent of the area, specifically in Bekasi," she said. Another two percent of the region is classified as a single-season area, referring to the rainy season in Bogor.
Teguh Rahayu, Head of the BMKG Geophysics Station Bandung, stated that 39 other areas in West Java remain in the rainy season. These regions will gradually transition into the dry season from April to June, with rainfall expected to be below normal.
"The start of the dry season in West Java is predicted to be earlier than usual, meaning it will be longer," said the BMKG West Java Coordinator.
Meanwhile, Fachri Radjab, Director of Climate Change at BMKG, stated that the latest analysis shows this year's dry season will arrive early and last longer.
Compared to the 30-year average, this year is relatively drier. "Not the driest in the last 30 years," he said. He noted that, by comparison, the 1997 dry season was more severe.
Fachri explained that this year’s dry season coincides with an active El Niño phase. While El Niño and the dry season are distinct phenomena, they influence each other. BMKG predicts El Niño will activate in late April or early May, reaching weak to moderate intensity around August, September, and October 2026.
Read: BMKG: 2026 Dry Season Expected to Be Drier Than 30-Year Norm
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