TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Tourism Minister Widiyanti Putri Wardhana warned that Indonesia risks losing between Rp48.3 trillion and Rp56.5 trillion in foreign exchange due to escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. The projections cover a 306-day period from February 28 to December 31, 2026.
"If this condition continues until the end of the year, the potential impact is estimated to reach 1.44 to 1.68 million foreign tourists," the Minister stated during a working meeting with Commission VII of the Indonesian House of Representatives at the parliament complex on Wednesday, April 1, 2026.
Widiyanti noted that between February 28 and March 28, 2026, six major departure points from the Middle East to Indonesia were affected: Abu Dhabi, Doha, Dubai, Jeddah, Madinah, and Muscat. In that single month, 770 flights were canceled, resulting in an estimated loss of 60,752 tourists and Rp2.04 trillion in foreign exchange.
Despite the looming geopolitical threats, the Ministry of Tourism remains optimistic about reaching its target of 16 to 17 million foreign arrivals for 2026. This goal surpasses the 15.39 million visitors recorded in 2025.
The Indonesian tourism industry currently faces significant challenges tied to the surge in crude oil prices, which have jumped from approximately US$70 to US$100 per barrel. This spike has driven up the cost of aviation turbine fuel (Avtur) and subsequent airfares.
Widiyanti pointed out that foreign carriers have already implemented steep fuel surcharges, with Air India raising ticket prices by 50 percent. Meanwhile, Cathay Pacific has seen fares on intercontinental routes soar by as much as 105 percent.
Even regional travel has been impacted; ferry ticket prices on the Singapore–Batam route have risen by 15.79 percent. "Fares have increased from SG$ 76 to SG$ 88 for round-trip tickets," she noted.
Read: Jet Fuel Prices in Indonesia Exceed Rp22,000 Amid Middle East Turmoil
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