What's Behind Europe's Heatwave? Could It Happen in Indonesia?

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta – An intense heatwave sweeping across several European countries has pushed temperatures to record highs, fueled deadly wildfires, and renewed global concerns about climate change. But what exactly is driving the extreme heat?

According to Sonni Setiawan, a lecturer at the Department of Geophysics and Meteorology, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, IPB University, the recent heatwave is the result of multiple atmospheric processes rather than a single cause.

"The phenomenon is the result of the interaction between extensive land heating during summer and the propagation of Rossby Waves in the mid-latitude atmosphere, where Europe is located," Sonni said in a written statement on Friday, July 3.

What Causes Europe's Heatwaves?

Sonni explained that Rossby Waves are large-scale atmospheric disturbances that influence air pressure, wind patterns, and temperatures across the Earth's mid-latitudes.

These waves typically stretch between 4,000 and 6,000 kilometers and form as westerly winds interact with major mountain ranges, including the Rocky Mountains in North America and the Andes in South America.

During the Northern Hemisphere summer, land surfaces receive intense solar heating and warm much faster than oceans because they store less heat. This difference amplifies the temperature disturbances associated with Rossby Waves, creating favorable conditions for heatwaves.

"During the summer in the Northern Hemisphere, land experiences maximum heating. Because land has a lower heat storage capacity than the ocean, air temperatures above it rise more rapidly. This continental-scale heating strengthens the temperature disturbances brought by Rossby Waves, leading to heatwaves," he said.

Why Can the Heat Last for Days?

Sonni said heatwaves become more severe when Rossby Waves move more slowly during summer. Their reduced speed allows hot air masses to remain over the same region for an extended period.

The situation is further intensified by an atmospheric pattern known as an Omega Block—a persistent high-pressure system that traps hot air and prevents cooler air from moving in.

"In the summer, Rossby Waves move more slowly, causing high-temperature fields to persist longer in a region. Combined with the Omega Block phenomenon, hot air becomes trapped, leading to prolonged heatwaves," he said.

Is This Proof of Climate Change?

The recent heatwave has reignited debate over the role of climate change in extreme weather events. While Sonni acknowledged that rising global temperatures are an important consideration, he cautioned against attributing a single event solely to climate change without examining natural atmospheric processes.

"The dynamics of natural atmospheric processes must remain an important part of the analysis before concluding the influence of climate change on an extreme heat event," he said.

Scientists generally agree that climate change is increasing the frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwaves worldwide. However, individual events are also influenced by natural weather variability and regional atmospheric conditions.

Could Indonesia Experience Similar Heatwaves?

Although Europe and Indonesia have different climates, Sonni said atmospheric circulation can connect weather patterns across distant regions through a mechanism known as teleconnection.

One example is the interaction between the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)—a large-scale pattern of tropical rainfall and atmospheric circulation—and weather systems in the Earth's mid-latitudes.

"There is a connection, although not directly, for example through the teleconnection between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and atmospheric circulation in extratropical regions," he said.

Why Indonesia's Heat Is Different

Sonni said Indonesia is also likely to experience rising temperatures in the future, but not in the same way as Europe.

Unlike Europe, where prolonged atmospheric blocking contributes to heatwaves, extreme heat in Indonesia is more commonly linked to land-use change, deforestation, and the urban heat island effect, in which cities become significantly warmer than surrounding rural areas.

"Indonesia has the potential to experience increased extreme temperatures, but not like in Europe. The more dominant factor is changes in land use, making large cities the most vulnerable areas," he said.

To reduce the impacts of rising temperatures, Sonni called for stronger adaptation measures, including reforestation, urban tree planting, and better land-use planning.

"Even though Indonesia does not experience heatwaves like in Europe, adaptation still needs to be done through reforestation, tree planting, and land-use control to minimize the impact of temperature increases," he said.

Read: Java Faces Drought Risk This Dry Season: What Is BMKG's Plan?

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