Analyst Explains Why Rupiah Could Weaken Past Rp18,000 Next Week

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta – Indonesia's rupiah posted a modest gain at the end of the week, but analysts warn the currency remains under pressure and could weaken past the Rp18,000-per-U.S.-dollar mark in the coming days.

The rupiah strengthened by 21 points in Friday's trading, June 26, 2026, closing at 17,922 against the U.S. dollar compared with the previous day's close. However, market observers expect the currency to fluctuate before ending weaker next week.

Currency and commodities analyst Ibrahim Assuabi, director of PT Trijaya Andalan Futures, forecast the rupiah to trade between 17,920 and 17,960 per U.S. dollar on Monday, June 29.

"For next week, the rupiah is projected to move between 17,880 and 18,100 per U.S. dollar," Ibrahim said in a written statement on Saturday, June 27.

Why Is the Rupiah Under Pressure?

The rupiah weakened for most of the week as the U.S. dollar strengthened globally. Bank Indonesia's Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (JISDOR) showed the rupiah at 17,819 per U.S. dollar on Monday, June 22, before weakening to 17,955 on Wednesday.

It recovered slightly to 17,942 on Thursday before closing Friday at 17,962 per U.S. dollar.

According to Ibrahim, demand for the U.S. dollar has remained strong despite easing tensions between the United States and Iran. While the immediate risk of conflict has subsided, uncertainty in the Middle East continues to support the dollar.

He also cited developments in the Strait of Hormuz, where crude oil shipments resumed after Washington and Tehran agreed to reopen the strategic shipping route.

"However, concerns over how long the strait will remain open have continued to influence market sentiment," he said.

Another factor weighing on the rupiah is persistent inflation in the United States. Core inflation rose to 3.4 percent, while headline inflation accelerated to 4.1 percent from 3.8 percent, reinforcing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer.

What Domestic Factors Could Support the Rupiah?

On the domestic front, Ibrahim said investors have responded positively to the Indonesian government's plan to continue budget efficiency measures, including savings under the flagship Free Nutritious Meals program, as part of broader efforts to safeguard fiscal stability.

Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia has stepped up market intervention through three channels—the spot foreign exchange market, Domestic Non-Deliverable Forward (DNDF), and the government bond (SBN) market—to contain volatility and prevent the rupiah from weakening further toward the Rp18,000-per-U.S.-dollar level.

Read: Minister Purbaya Says BGN to Implement Further Budget Savings

Click here to get the latest news updates from Tempo on Google News

Today's Top 3 News: UI's Ranking in QS WUR, Student Journalist Harassment

3 hari lalu

Danantara Gets More and More Reckless

3 hari lalu

JCI, Rupiah Weaken Ahead of MSCI Decision

3 hari lalu

Prabowo Blames Capital Outflows for Rupiah Weakness

4 hari lalu

Indonesia's Money Supply Reaches Rp10,415 Trillion in May 2026

4 hari lalu

JCI and Rupiah Close Lower on Monday, What's Behind It?

5 hari lalu

Fact Check: No New Rupiah Banknotes Featuring Prabowo and Gibran to Be Issued in June 2026

6 hari lalu

BI Says Tourism Transactions in Indonesia Must Use Rupiah

8 hari lalu

Will MSCI Downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market? Experts Weigh In

8 hari lalu

Negative Sentiment Surrounding Dasco's Maneuver

8 hari lalu