Java Faces Drought Risk This Dry Season: What Is BMKG's Plan?

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta – Indonesia's Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) is preparing a weather modification operation, commonly known as cloud seeding, in early October to mitigate the risk of water shortages as a hotter and drier dry season is expected to affect Java.

BMKG Deputy for Weather Modification Tri Handoko Seto said the operation aims to increase rainfall to replenish reservoirs that supply water for agriculture and communities facing the threat of drought.

Cloud Seeding Planned for October

"Major reservoirs in Java, including Saguling, Cirata, and Jatiluhur in the Citarum basin, as well as reservoirs in the Brantas basin in East Java, are currently in a safe condition," Seto said after attending a ceremony marking the launch of a clean water distribution operation for areas affected by the 2026 El Niño-induced extreme drought at the Indonesian Red Cross (PMI) logistics warehouse in Jakarta on Tuesday.

"However, we expect water deficits in September and October, so we plan to carry out weather modification operations across Java in early October."

Seto said BMKG has coordinated with the National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) to prepare the necessary documents for the operation, following the declaration of drought emergency status in several areas of West Java, Central Java, and East Java.

BMKG Warns of Intensifying Dry Season

According to BMKG's latest climate analysis, western and southern parts of Indonesia are still experiencing rainfall. However, precipitation is forecast to decline sharply from July through mid-October, particularly on Java, with conditions expected to worsen due to the ongoing El Niño phenomenon.

"The peak of the extreme drought is forecast to occur in August and September. Preparedness from humanitarian organizations, including the Indonesian Red Cross through its clean water distribution efforts, will be crucial for affected communities," Seto said.

Protecting Water Supplies and Reducing Fire Risk

In addition to safeguarding water supplies in Java's agricultural regions, Seto said BMKG is also conducting weather modification operations in parallel to maintain water levels in Lake Toba in North Sumatra and the Poso region in Central Sulawesi.

The cloud-seeding operations are intended to help replenish shrinking reservoirs while reducing the risk of forest and land fires, which can trigger widespread haze during the dry season.

"We hope these weather modification operations will support the agricultural sector and help sustain communities, especially those in Sumatra and Kalimantan that are vulnerable to haze caused by forest fires," Seto said.

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